PCE Cooled | October Hike Odds Collapsed | Micron Beat and Shrugged | Bitcoin Closed Its Best Quarter Since 2024

Wednesday’s close argued with itself.

The Dow fell more than 440 points, or about 0.9%, to roughly 50,908. The S&P 500 lost about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.2%.

Inflation gave stocks a reason to rally. August core PCE came in below forecasts. But the 10-year Treasury yield still climbed near 5.29%, its highest level since 2007.

Futures firmed Thursday. Dow futures gained about 0.2%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures rose roughly 0.3%.

Labor added another problem. ADP reported 90,000 private jobs in September, above the 58,000 forecast and August’s revised 36,000.

Today brings ISM Manufacturing, the final S&P Global manufacturing reading and construction spending. Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN) and McCormick also report. Friday brings payrolls, with about 84,000 jobs expected.

The Signal

Inflation cooled. Labor did not. The Fed now has one argument for waiting and another for keeping the next hike alive.

The bond market and the Fed trade are telling different stories.

Softer core PCE pushed the chance of an October 28 hike from about 51% to 37%. Polymarket’s no-change contract jumped from 33% to 60%.

New York Fed President John Williams also said the Fed does not need to rush into another increase after September’s hike took rates to 3.75% to 4.00%.

But the market is not pricing the end of tightening.

December hike odds remain near 74% to 76%. The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.6% this week, its highest level since 2002. The 10-year reached 5.29%.

That gap matters. Short-term Fed expectations eased, but long-term borrowing costs did not.

ADP then added 90,000 jobs. Friday’s payroll report can either support Wednesday’s pause trade or reverse it before the weekend.

Macro Signal

The market is not pricing a Fed that is finished. It is pricing a Fed that may wait one meeting. Friday decides how much patience that trade can support.

Diplomacy moved. Oil barely did.

Iran confirmed that it received Washington’s formal response to its seven-day Hormuz proposal through Qatari mediators. President Masoud Pezeshkian was briefed, but Tehran did not disclose the U.S. terms.

Iran’s original proposal called for the U.S. naval blockade to end and frozen assets to be released in return for reopening Hormuz and starting wider talks. Trump had already rejected that offer.

The pressure on Tehran is growing. Iran’s currency reached another record low this week, seven months into the war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran could have “nothing left to trade” within two weeks.

Yet crude showed little reaction. Brent held near $98 and WTI near $90 as traders waited for a real agreement.

Energy Signal

Washington and Tehran are exchanging formal proposals again. Oil wants proof that diplomacy can move barrels before it prices a deal.

Micron (MU) delivered a strong quarter and received almost no reward.

The company beat Wall Street forecasts for both revenue and earnings. Full-year net income reached $84.97 billion, up from $37.38 billion a year earlier.

Management said demand for AI memory, especially high-bandwidth memory, should remain tight through 2028. DRAM is now a key limit on AI data-center growth, with some customers unable to install as much memory as they want because supply is not available.

Micron shares rose just 0.16% after hours.

That reaction matters as much as the results.

The AI memory shortage is still getting worse. But investors had already priced in enough strength that another beat produced little upside.

Nike, Accenture and manufacturing data provide the next test today.

Capital Signal

Micron confirmed that AI memory demand remains stronger than supply. Its stock barely moved. In a market facing 5% yields, strong results now have to beat strong expectations too.

Crypto ended the quarter with price strength and a new competitive threat.

Bitcoin finished Q3 up roughly 44%, its best quarter since Q4 2024. Ether gained nearly 71%, its strongest quarter since Q1 2021.

Institutional demand remained part of that move. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in the week through September 25, their strongest week since October 2025. Long-term holders now control about 80% of Bitcoin supply, an all-time high.

But the market structure underneath crypto is changing.

Robinhood (HOOD) said it will offer U.S. crypto perpetual futures through its own derivatives business, with trades routed through Bitstamp.

Lighter fell 17% in 24 hours after the announcement.

The move puts a regulated retail broker directly against DeFi platforms that built their businesses around perpetual futures. Lighter’s funding rates remained positive, but the competitive question changed overnight.

Washington delivered another warning.

Crypto firms spent nearly $8 million lobbying for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act during the first half of 2026. Coinbase alone spent $2.2 million, more than Goldman Sachs (GS) spent on securities lobbying.

The bill still collapsed in the Senate.

Industry groups are now shifting attention toward SEC and CFTC rulemaking, with no clear path for Congress to revive the bill before year-end.

The Verdict

Bitcoin gained 44% and Ether nearly 71% in Q3, but institutionalization is changing who controls the next stage.

Robinhood is moving onto DeFi’s turf. Crypto firms are moving from Congress toward regulators. The market is growing even without the law catching up.

Thursday starts with four markets sending different signals.

PCE gave the Fed room to wait, but ADP gave it a reason not to relax. October hike odds fell near 37%, while December remains near 75% and the 10-year sits around 5.29%.

Iran and Washington are exchanging proposals, but Brent near $98 shows that traders still want action.

Micron confirmed years of tight AI memory supply, yet the stock barely moved.

Crypto delivered the cleanest quarter. Bitcoin gained roughly 44%. Ether gained nearly 71%. But Robinhood’s move into perpetuals and the failed CLARITY Act show where the next fight is moving.

Friday’s payrolls decide whether October remains a pause or returns to the table.