Wednesday opened the front door and left the back one shut.Stocks rallied on the inflation report, then gave it back. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54 after trading about 0.6% higher by late morning. The Dow lost 443.87 points, or 0.86%, to 50,906.05. The Nasdaq gained 0.24% to 26,861.06. The front door was the Fed. Futures cut the chance of an October hike to about 35%, from about 51% on Tuesday. The 2-year yield barely moved, near 4.89%. The back door was the long end. The 10-year slipped toward 5.21% after the data, then climbed to 5.304%. The 30-year rose about 7 basis points to 5.64%. The Back Door Held A soft inflation print used to bring long yields down with it. Wednesday it moved only the Fed path. The 2-year held while the 10-year climbed, so the long end is answering to something the October meeting does not set. If Friday's payrolls run hot, the front door could start to close as well. Premier Feature There's a Strategy Behind the Iran War.I know because I've seen the evidence firsthand. On March 2nd — three days after the first missiles hit — I sat across from two U.S. Congressmen in back-to-back private meetings. Those meetings pointed me toward something I spent weeks verifying. The real purpose behind the strikes. The real objective. And the single company at the dead center of all of it. This isn't random. It's a calculated Two-Front Economic War. And there's one company positioned right at the heart of it. See the strategy behind the Iran war — and the company at the center of it The sooner you understand what's really happening — the better positioned you'll be before — Dylan Jovine, Founder, Behind the Markets Crude came home. Fuel is still on backorder.Kpler data cited by CNBC put Hormuz crude at 13.5 million barrels a day, a seven-day average through Monday. That matches the prewar baseline. The wider region shipped 19.5 million, above a prewar level near 17 million. About 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses Hormuz through Saudi and UAE pipelines, versus 17% before the war. The recovery also leans on U.S. military escorts for Gulf tankers, CNBC reported. Refined fuel tells the other story. Product flows through Hormuz averaged 677,000 barrels a day, against 3.6 million before the war. Russia extended its diesel export ban through Oct. 31. Heating oil futures, the U.S. diesel benchmark, rose about 4% and outran crude. WTI settled up $1.04 at $90.42. Diplomacy trails the tankers. Iran said it received a U.S. reply through Qatar but did not describe it. Trump has denied reports that he offered sanctions relief or frozen funds. The Barrel Came Home The crude shortage is closing. The fuel shortage is not, and Russia just tightened it. That keeps diesel inside the inflation story even as crude supply recovers. The crude recovery rests on pipelines and escorts, so an attack on either would reopen the question. The inflation report changed the thermometer more than the fever.Headline PCE rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, below the 3.7% forecast. Core rose 0.2% and 3.0%, against 3.3% expected. The annual revision cut July to the same 3.4% and 3.0%. On the new series, yearly inflation held steady from July. Growth ran the other way. Spending rose 0.9%, and second-quarter GDP was revised to a 2.2% annual pace from 1.5%. ADP counted 90,000 private jobs in September, above the roughly 70,000 forecast. August was revised to 36,000. "It's really the growth number," U.S. Bank's Rob Haworth said of the bond selloff. Kalshi priced a 39% chance of an October hike, near futures. Goldman Sachs now expects a December hike instead, and futures still price one. Economists expect about 84,000 payrolls Friday, against August's first count of 162,000. The Thermometer Changed The August beat came almost entirely from revised history. On the revised data, core has read 3.0% for three months while spending and hiring picked up. That gives the Fed room to wait in October without a reason to stop. A firm payroll print would keep December in play. From Our Partners There's a HUGE Downside to This Bull Market (And It's Not a Crash)It's hard to deny we're in a bull market. Stocks, real estate, gold, and bitcoin are hitting record highs month after month. But one multi-millionaire investor says this is unlike any bull run we've seen before. "There's a dark reason why so many assets are levitating—it's a sign we've entered the Most Terrifying Bull Market in History." For the full story, click here. 
Micron (MU) cleared a bar set above its own guidance.Analysts had expected revenue above the top of Micron's range. It beat anyway. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue hit $54.23 billion, above the $51.07 billion LSEG estimate. A year ago it was $11.32 billion. Adjusted EPS was $33.42 versus $31.61. DRAM did the lifting. Its revenue jumped 343% to $39.8 billion, or 73% of sales. The outlook reached further. For the fiscal first quarter, it guided revenue to about $61.5 billion. Analysts expected $57.02 billion. The EPS guide was $38.15. Shares rose about 1% after hours. Orders for its high-bandwidth memory far exceed capacity, Reuters reported. Micron has lifted planned U.S. investment to more than $250 billion through 2035. AI is renting shelf space faster than Micron can build the warehouse. Memory Answers The quarter's worry was whether yields above 5% would slow AI spending. Micron reported with the 10-year near 5.3% and still guided well above forecasts. For now, this part of the AI buildout shrugs off rates. The next test is whether that holds if long yields keep climbing. Bitcoin ran to the end of its leash and got pulled back.Bitcoin opened near $83,624 and jumped as high as $85,598.94 after the inflation data. By about 2 p.m., it had slipped back near $84,000 as the 10-year climbed. Ether (ETH) traded below $2,700, and XRP near $1.50. Traders got caught on both sides. In the hour to 9:43 a.m., TokenPost counted about $49 million of liquidations on three big exchanges. Longs and shorts split it almost evenly. The deeper unwind has been orderly. Open interest fell about 49,000 BTC in a week. That was the biggest weekly drop since October 2025. K33's Vetle Lunde tied it to profit-taking more than forced selling. CryptoQuant estimates spot demand shrank about 170,000 BTC over 30 days. Lunde also said rising yields are "pushing investors away from risk." Support sits well below. The 50-day EMA is near $77,800, and the 200-day near $74,400. The Short Leash Lower hike odds lifted bitcoin in the morning. The rising 10-year pulled it back by afternoon. With leverage lighter and spot demand thinner, the next move depends on which rate leads. A soft payroll print would loosen the leash, and a firm one keeps the long yield in charge. Partner Spotlight Major Buy Alert Issued 
Keith Kaplan has invested $17 million into his own AI research and tools. He's built a platform that 180,000 people worldwide use in the stock market. Now he says there's a handful of stocks you need to buy asap, to set yourself up for 1,000% potential returns in the near future. Here are the stocks you need to buy for the chance to profit. This ad is sent on behalf of TradeSmith at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, please click here. Wednesday answered the Fed question and left the long-rate question open.Core PCE held at 3.0%, and October hike odds fell. The 10-year still climbed. Hormuz crude recovered while fuel stayed short. Micron said AI is still buying. Bitcoin rode the soft print past $85,500 and gave most of it back. Friday's payrolls decide which rate the market follows into October. 3 Stocks at a Major Turning PointSomething unusual is happening beneath the surface of three widely followed stocks.
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