Q2 Closed at Records. Strategy Overhauled Its Bitcoin Playbook. Warsh Speaks in Sintra Today.

The S&P 500 rose 0.79% Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.52%. The Dow added 136 points to finish Q2 at a record 52,319.

Chipmakers led the final session. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed 7.7%. Intel (INTC) rose 6%. Marvell Technology (MRVL) gained 7.3%. Nvidia (NVDA) added 2.6%.

The rally broadened through the quarter. The Russell 2000 is now up more than 20% this year, its best first half since 1991. AI spending is no longer lifting only the largest companies. Capital is spreading deeper into semiconductors, equipment makers and smaller suppliers.

Futures are quieter this morning. Dow futures are down about 83 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are little changed. Asia is stronger. The Nikkei gained 1.79%. The Kospi rose 1.52%. Hong Kong is closed for a holiday. The yen weakened to 162.28 against the dollar, putting Japanese authorities back on intervention watch.

Three catalysts arrive today. ADP employment lands before the open. ISM Manufacturing follows. Warsh then delivers his first major speech since the June FOMC meeting.

The Signal

The strongest quarter since 2020 is finished. Today starts the test of whether investors still want to add risk.

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Brent trades near $72. WTI sits close to $70 as investors wait for developments around U.S. and Iran negotiations.

The physical picture continues to improve. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to roughly 75% of prewar levels. Saudi Arabia has resumed tanker loading at Ras Tanura. More vessels are returning to established routes.

That is progress.

It is not a full recovery.

Insurance costs remain elevated. Some shipping companies are still using alternative routes, and Iran continues to insist it will maintain authority over maritime traffic. Tehran has also not confirmed the latest Doha discussions.

Markets have already priced much of the good news. That leaves more downside than upside for expectations.

Energy Signal

Oil is trading as if diplomacy succeeds. The shipping system still has work to do before that story becomes reality.

The June FOMC shifted expectations toward one hike in 2026 and removed the detailed forward guidance markets had grown used to. That leaves incoming data carrying more weight than official projections.

Today's ADP report is expected to show about 130,000 private-sector jobs. ISM Manufacturing will provide another read on whether lower energy costs are helping factories recover or whether businesses are still dealing with weak demand and earlier supply disruptions.

Warsh then speaks at the ECB Forum in Sintra.

This will be investors' first opportunity to hear how he views falling oil prices, still-elevated inflation and a labor market that has slowed but not broken.

Across Europe, policymakers continue signaling another rate increase remains possible. The broader message from major central banks is consistent. Inflation is easing slowly, but no one is ready to declare victory.

Thursday's payroll report remains the week's main event.

Today's data simply sets the table.

Macro Signal

Warsh built a Fed that reacts to incoming data instead of promises. ADP and ISM begin that process today.

But one market statistic — praised by Warren Buffett as the best measure of valuations — is now flashing a historic warning.

It’s currently higher than it was at the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble.

If the signal proves accurate, the coming AI unwind could shake the entire market.

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SpaceX (SPCX) joins the Nasdaq 100 on July 7. Passive index funds are expected to buy roughly $4.3 billion of stock, with Russell index changes adding another estimated $3 billion. Total passive demand could approach $7.3 billion.

Three days later, SK Hynix begins trading on Nasdaq through a record ADR offering targeting as much as $29.4 billion.

The proceeds have already been assigned.

The company will expand wafer fabrication in Yongin, increase advanced packaging capacity in Cheongju and add more EUV equipment. HBM memory for 2026 is effectively sold out, and SK Hynix controls roughly 58% of the global market.

The consumer side remains more difficult.

Nike reported revenue of $10.97 billion, slightly above expectations but still down 1% from a year ago. EPS reached $0.72, though $0.52 came from a tariff refund. Excluding that benefit, adjusted earnings still beat expectations, but China sales remained weak while North America showed only modest improvement.

Constellation Brands (STZ) also moved higher after earnings.

The contrast matters.

AI infrastructure continues attracting record investment. Consumer companies are still fighting slower demand.

Capital Signal

The AI investment cycle is expanding into its next stage. The consumer economy has not yet joined it.

Strategy (MSTR) approved a new Digital Credit Capital Framework. The plan authorizes up to $1.25 billion of bitcoin sales to fund dividends and interest payments. It also includes roughly $2 billion of buybacks across common and preferred shares while raising the STRC preferred dividend to 12%.

Strategy owns 847,363 bitcoin at an average purchase price near $75,651. The authorization covers about 20,800 bitcoin, or roughly 2.5% of its holdings.

The company did not sell Monday.

It simply acknowledged bitcoin is now part of its funding strategy.

That shift follows a sharp decline in Strategy's valuation premium. The equity issuance model that funded years of bitcoin accumulation has become less effective as the stock moved closer to the value of its underlying bitcoin.

Bitcoin trades near $59,500 this morning after giving back Monday's rebound. The asset is down roughly 17% in June and more than 50% from its October 2024 peak. Spot bitcoin ETFs have now recorded more than $4 billion of June outflows.

The Verdict

Strategy adapted because financing conditions changed. Bitcoin still needs a new source of demand.

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The second half of 2026 begins with markets sending two very different signals.

Equities finished the quarter at records.

Bitcoin finished it near multi-month lows.

Oil has returned close to prewar levels. Inflation remains above target. The labor market is slowing without breaking. The Fed has stopped telling markets what comes next.

That leaves every major report carrying more weight.

Today starts that sequence.

Warsh speaks for the first time since the June meeting. ADP and ISM arrive before him. Payrolls land Thursday. Next week, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100 and SK Hynix launches the largest ADR offering ever.

The first quarter proved AI demand was real.

The first week of Q3 will test whether valuations can keep pace with it.

The question for July is no longer whether companies want to spend on AI.

It is whether the Fed will give markets room to keep paying today's prices.