Qualcomm Paid the AI Bill | Oil Sold a War Still Running | The Hike Bet Didn't Blink | Trump Media Moved Its Collateral

The AI boom has a bill, and Qualcomm is paying part of it.

Qualcomm (QCOM) fell about 9% before the bell. Total revenue beat. Its handset business, its largest, shrank 26% to $5.14 billion and missed estimates.

Part of the cause sits in someone else's server racks. Data centers are soaking up memory, and phone makers pay more for what's left. Falling sales to Apple are the other drag. Chief executive Cristiano Amon said Qualcomm "called this memory thing early."

AppLovin (APP) rose about 17% on the other side of the ledger. Revenue from its AI-driven ad business jumped 55%, and the low end of its fourth-quarter guide topped every analyst estimate.

The neocloud selloff kept going. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) lost another 3% to 4% after falling 9.9% and 6.7% Wednesday. Nasdaq futures slipped about 0.5%, a day after the Dow jumped 3%.

The Signal

The AI trade has split into payers and payees. Businesses that use AI to sell more are collecting. Hardware that competes with data centers for parts is getting squeezed. Wednesday's political scare hit the builders, but Qualcomm's squeeze started long before the vote.

Oil priced the end of a war that hasn't ended.

Brent regained nearly 2% early Thursday after settling down 8.7% at $94.62, its lowest settle since Aug. 31. Brent is on course for its steepest weekly fall since April 2020.

Nothing physical changed overnight. Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz remain unmet, and Tehran called Washington's reply unconvincing. U.S. crude stocks still fell last week. The new Congress isn't seated until January.

The politics changed. Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday, "The reason we lost is the war." President Trump said Tuesday he had no immediate plans to strike.

Exxon (XOM) fell 4.5% Wednesday. ConocoPhillips (COP) and EOG (EOG) each lost 5.2% ahead of their reports Thursday. United Airlines (UAL) rose 8%.

Energy Signal

Traders removed the war premium on a vote, not on barrels. A premium taken out by politics can come back with one headline. Conoco and EOG report with U.S. crude near $89, and their spending plans will show whether they believe the drop.

Inflation expectations fell with oil. The Fed bet barely noticed.

One-year inflation swaps fell to about 2.1% from 2.4% on Tuesday and 2.7% late last week. The 10-year yield dropped about 6 basis points to 4.89%. The dollar had its steepest fall in two months, and gold rose to near $4,140 by early Thursday.

Kalshi's December hike contract held at 80 cents overnight. Two Fed officials dissented for a hike in October. ADP's count of private payrolls rose 86,000 in October, beating forecasts.

Treasury kept its auction sizes but dropped "at least" from its plan to hold them "for the next several quarters." Its own advisory committee had recommended changing that language, saying increases "will be warranted" later in fiscal 2027.

Sweden's Riksbank hiked Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The Bank of England decides Thursday.

Macro Signal

Oil handed the Fed a reason to wait, and the market declined it. Inflation swaps now price a cooler year ahead while the December contract prices a hawkish committee. Friday's payrolls and the Nov. 10 inflation report decide which one gives way.

Private money wants in. It wants in at its own price.

Empower Brands, owned by Spectrum Brands (SPB) and Oaktree funds, went public with a $37-a-share cash proposal for Helen of Troy (HELE). It values the company at about $1.6 billion including debt. The board unanimously rejected it, and the stock closed at $37.04, above the offer.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) agreed to sell its North American coffee business, including Maxwell House and Gevalia, to One Rock Capital at a $650 million enterprise value. Kraft Heinz keeps 30%.

Private credit's numbers depend on which column you read. Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) put loans on non-accrual at 2.9% of its portfolio at cost and 0.8% at fair value. Blackstone's BCRED reported 2.7% and 1.7%.

Capital Signal

Every deal this week left a gap between price and conviction. Helen of Troy's holders won't sell at the offer. Kraft Heinz kept 30% of what it sold. Lenders report one figure for troubled loans at cost and a far smaller one at fair value. Buyers are active, but nobody is paying up for certainty.

Trump Media's bitcoin moved, and the deadline behind it is in writing.

Wallets labeled as collateral for Trump Media's convertible notes sent about 4,259 bitcoin, worth roughly $340 million, to Crypto.com late Wednesday. That nearly matches the 4,260.73 bitcoin the company pledged against the notes. A transfer is not a sale, and Crypto.com is one of its custodians. The move came hours after Trump Media (DJT) closed at a record low of $4.49, down 24.5%.

Its Nov. 2 filing says noteholders can demand cash on Nov. 30, up to about $1 billion, and that it may have to sell bitcoin if other funding falls short. The notes convert near $34.72 a share.

Spot bitcoin funds took in $74.6 million Wednesday, ending three days of outflows, even as BlackRock's IBIT lost $201 million, SoSoValue and Farside data show. Bitcoin held near $80,200.

A federal judge let stock perpetual futures keep trading on Kalshi, Coinbase (COIN) Derivatives and Bitnomial. She also found the group that sued, whose members include Cboe and Citadel Securities, "likely to succeed" in arguing the CFTC lacked authority. The CFTC's response is due Friday.

The Verdict

Crypto's next month runs on dates, not votes. Trump Media's Nov. 30 put and the perps case matter more this month than any bill. A wallet move may mean nothing. A $1 billion cash date in a filing does not.

Qualcomm paid part of the data centers' memory bill.

Oil sold a war that is still running.

Inflation expectations fell, and the hike bet stayed.

Helen of Troy's holders want more than $37.

Trump Media's noteholders get their say on Nov. 30.

Claims and the Bank of England land Thursday, payrolls Friday and inflation on Nov. 10.

The vote is counted. The bills are just arriving.