Stocks Absorb 5% Yields | Oil Falls on Hormuz Talks | Bitcoin Holds $84K | The SEC Clarifies Crypto Rules

Friday showed that 5% yields do not automatically break the equity trade.

The S&P 500 gained about 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose 0.6%, and the Dow added roughly 421 points, or 0.8%, in afternoon trading. Technology led as lower oil prices offset another move higher in Treasury yields.

The 10-year briefly reached 5.23%, its highest since June 2007, before easing toward 5.16%. The 30-year remained above 5.5%. Markets still price roughly a two-thirds chance of another Fed hike in October.

AI helped absorb the pressure. Meta (META) gained roughly 12% this week on demand for its Muse AI agent. Akamai (AKAM) also rose after announcing an $11.6 billion, seven-year deal with Anthropic.

August durable goods orders were roughly flat, beating expectations for a 0.3% decline, while consumer sentiment weakened.

The Signal

Yields reached another 19-year high, yet stocks rose. Lower oil and AI demand are giving equities room to absorb a much higher cost of capital.

Diplomacy took control of oil again.

WTI fell 2.06% to $92.66, leaving U.S. crude down 7.9% for the week. Brent dropped 2.1% to $104.32 and finished the week roughly flat.

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure, lifts its blockade and provides sanctions relief. Tehran says broader negotiations could follow if those conditions are met.

The physical picture is also improving. Saudi crude exports reached about 6 million barrels per day in September, up nearly 80% from August’s 3.4 million. Hormuz oil flows reached a seven-day average of 13.2 million bpd Wednesday, versus about 17 million before the war.

Saudi Arabia is also slowly restoring its East-West pipeline.

The security risk remains. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are increasing military coordination as Houthi attacks continue across the region.

Energy Signal

Oil is falling because diplomacy and physical flows are improving at the same time. Hormuz is still impaired, but the market is moving away from the worst-case supply scenario.

Friday did not solve the bond problem.

The 10-year reached 5.23% before easing toward 5.16%. The 30-year remained near levels last seen in 2004, while the 2-year slipped toward 4.86%.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said further policy moves may be needed to restore price stability. Markets still see another October hike as more likely than not.

The pressure is global.

Japan’s 10-year yield has risen above 3%, its highest in about 30 years. Japanese banks have sold roughly $70 billion of foreign bonds this year as domestic debt becomes more attractive.

A larger repatriation wave has not arrived because investors are waiting for Japanese yields to stabilize.

Macro Signal

The rate shock is spreading beyond the U.S. A sustained shift of Japanese capital back home would add another source of pressure to global bond and risk markets.

Trump and Xi ended three days of talks with stability, not a breakthrough.

The clearest result was a two-month trade truce extension to January 10. Limited agreements covered agriculture, medical devices and other non-sensitive goods.

The larger disputes remain. Taiwan, AI, advanced chip controls, rare earths and Iran were not resolved. The two governments agreed to keep talking about AI safety, but no major technology deal emerged.

For markets, that means the near-term tariff deadline moved without changing the long-term technology fight.

AI spending also kept moving. Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic agreement shows that infrastructure demand remains strong even as borrowing costs rise.

Capital Signal

Washington and Beijing bought time. AI companies are still buying capacity. The question is how long that investment cycle can outrun a 5% Treasury market.

Bitcoin spent Friday absorbing the macro shock.

BTC traded near $84,100 after reaching roughly $87,400 earlier this week. Ether slipped below $2,700 to about $2,683, while XRP recovered toward $1.54.

Crypto sentiment remains firm. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 71, in Greed territory, even as expectations for another Fed hike weigh on the market.

The more important move came from Washington.

The SEC expanded its crypto guidance, saying token buybacks, network upgrades and marketing do not automatically make a token a security.

For a functional network, routine work to maintain or improve the system generally does not count as the type of essential managerial effort used in the Howey analysis. The treatment can change if an unfinished network markets buybacks or future work as a source of investor profit.

The CFTC also said regulated firms may hold permitted investments in tokenized form and can use blockchain records if required information remains reproducible.

That regulatory progress came with a security warning.

Bitget disclosed roughly $351.6 million in unauthorized transfers across 19 transactions. The exchange suspects a North Korean hacking group may be involved, although the investigation remains open.

Cold wallets were not affected. Bitget says customer balances are intact and the loss is covered by its User Protection Fund, which holds more than $464 million.

The Verdict

Bitcoin held near $84,000 despite 5% yields. The SEC gave functional crypto networks more clarity, while the CFTC opened more room for tokenized assets.

Bitget showed the other side of adoption. The rules are getting clearer, but infrastructure security still has to catch up.

Friday produced a strange mix.

The 10-year touched 5.23%, yet stocks rose. WTI fell to $92.41 as Hormuz flows improved. Bitcoin held near $84,100 while regulators gave crypto more operating room.

Those moves connect.

Lower oil reduces one source of inflation. Better Iran diplomacy reduces one geopolitical risk. AI demand gives equities a growth engine. Clearer SEC and CFTC rules give crypto infrastructure a path forward.

But the constraints remain.

The Fed is still leaning toward more tightening. The U.S.-China technology fight survived the summit. Hormuz is not fully open. Bitget just lost $351.6 million.

The week ends with risk assets still standing against the highest Treasury yields in almost two decades.

That resilience is now the trade.

Next week tests how expensive it becomes.