The Buyers Left Last Week. This Week Names the Replacements.

Bitcoin enters the week above its 50-day average, with fewer steady buyers underneath it.

Bitcoin traded near $83,100 at 10:32 a.m. Eastern Friday. Ether sat near $2,490, still below its own 50-day line.

Last week's damage did not come from rates alone. Fund holders sold, borrowed bets were cleared, and ether's largest corporate buyer named a stopping point.

This week brings outside verdicts. September inflation lands Wednesday. An index provider rules on Strategy by Friday. A new XRP treasury company expects to start trading on or about Monday.

Monday is also Columbus Day. Stock exchanges open, but the bond market and Federal Reserve banks close. Crypto trades as usual.

Six questions frame the week.

Does Inflation Put Rates Back in Charge?

The September consumer price index arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Producer prices follow Thursday at the same hour. The Fed's Beige Book lands Wednesday at 2 p.m.

August's index rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Brent crude spent most of last week above $100 a barrel, and energy feeds both reports.

After the Fed's minutes, futures priced about an 85% chance of a hike by December. October odds sat near 20%. Kalshi's October contract drifted to 18 cents late Thursday.

Fed officials get a few more chances to talk. Governor Christopher Waller discusses AI on Tuesday. Chair Kevin Warsh joins the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok at 11:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday. The blackout before the Oct. 27-28 meeting starts Saturday.

Last Thursday, yields eased and bitcoin kept falling.

The Rate Test Gets a Number

A hot print would firm up December and test whether bitcoin trades with yields again. A soft print without a bitcoin bounce would point the other way. It would point to pressure from inside crypto. Either result sharpens a link that loosened last week.

Do Fund Buyers Come Back, and Through Which Door?

This is a daily condition, not a dated event.

Through Thursday, U.S. spot ether funds had lost money for eight straight sessions, a run that began Sept. 29. Bitcoin funds lost about $729 million on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's figures post after the U.S. close. Stock exchanges run a normal session Monday, so the funds trade even with banks shut.

One manager sat on both sides of the split. On Tuesday, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in $122.0 million. The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) lost $201.9 million the same day.

Their sponsor, BlackRock (BLK), reports third-quarter results Wednesday before the open. Its call starts at 7:30 a.m. Eastern. The quarter it covers ended before October's outflows.

Breadth Is the Tell

Inflows spread across several funds would suggest broad demand is returning. Money back into one fund would fit a few large holders changing course. A ninth day of ether outflows would extend that run.

Does MSCI Call Strategy a Fund?

MSCI expects to announce, on or before Oct. 16, whether it will screen "non-operating companies" out of its global indexes. Its own test run removed Strategy and Metaplanet. Any change would apply at the November index review. MSCI has said the consultation may or may not lead to changes.

Strategy (MSTR) calls the plan misguided. It says index funds tied to those benchmarks hold about 3.1% of its basic shares. By its timeline, any removals would be named Nov. 11 and take effect Dec. 1.

The same test put SharpLink on a new public watch list.

The ruling lands on a stock under strain. Last Wednesday, Strategy fell about 2.4 times as far as bitcoin.

A Label With a Flow Attached

An exclusion would force index funds to sell at the November review. It would also set a template for other treasury companies. A ruling that spares Strategy would lift a weight carried since August. Neither outcome, by itself, adds demand for bitcoin.

What Is an XRP Treasury Worth on Day One?

Evernorth's merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II was first set to close Oct. 7. It was then expected on or about Friday. A filing put the start of Nasdaq trading on or about Monday, citing an administrative delay.

The company expects to hold about 473 million XRP. At Friday morning's price near $1.39, that is worth about $657 million. XRP traded near $1.50 when the shell peaked.

The shell already trades as Armada Acquisition Corp. II (XRPN). It touched $52.82 on Oct. 2, more than five times its trust value. It traded near $18.50 at 10:32 a.m. Friday.

The final share count is not public yet. Until it is, nobody can say how much XRP each share holds.

Premium Meets Share Count

Strong early trading above token value would show buyers still pay up for a listed wrapper. A slide toward token value would match last week, when treasury stocks fell harder than coins. Another delay would leave the shell trading without a share count.

Who Buys Ether After BitMine?

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) needs about 100,000 more ether to reach its 5% cap. Its weekly holdings updates show how fast it is closing that gap. Ether traded about 2% below its 50-day average Friday morning.

The protocol side is quieter. Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade went live on the Sepolia test network on Oct. 6. Dates for the next test network and for the main network have not been set.

So this week's ether test is about buyers. Fund flows and BitMine's update are the two readings that matter.

A Buyer Gap, Not a Code Gap

A larger BitMine purchase alongside fund inflows would ease worries about a thinning bid. A small purchase and a ninth day of outflows would leave ether leaning on leveraged trading that was just flushed. The upgrade path can wait. The buyer question cannot.

Which Rulebook Starts Its Clock?

As of Wednesday, the CFTC's crypto notice had not appeared in the Federal Register, law firm Baker Botts noted. Comments run 60 days once it does. Publication would start that clock for leveraged retail trading rules.

Comments on the SEC's Regulation Crypto Assets proposal close Oct. 20. Companies on OKXICE's tokenized-stock list are still inside their 30-day window to object.

Abroad, Thailand's crypto ETF rules take effect Oct. 16. Only bitcoin and ether qualify at first. No fund has been approved yet. Retail investors also lose the broker route into foreign crypto ETFs.

Clocks Start, Nothing Settles

Federal Register publication would turn a notice into a deadline. Thailand would open a new local route to crypto exposure. Neither would add demand this week. Each sets terms for buyers who might come later.

Last week showed who stepped back.

This week tests who steps in, and what has to happen first.

Inflation decides how much of the slide rates can still explain. MSCI and the XRPN debut price the treasury-company model from two directions. Fund flows and BitMine's update decide who carries ether.

The data arrives on a schedule.

The buyers do not.