The Fed, Big Tech and Strategy Land in Two Days.

Crypto heads into its busiest week of the month with fund buyers near their breakeven.

Bitcoin traded near $81,500 early Friday, and ether was near $2,400. Bitcoin hit a high of about $84,840 on Wednesday, then slid with tech stocks.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in a net $442.7 million from Monday through Thursday, SoSoValue data showed. Thursday alone lost $635.6 million.

The calendar is packed into Wednesday and Thursday. The Fed decides Wednesday. Three of the largest tech companies report across both evenings. Strategy (MSTR) holds a shareholder vote Wednesday. Strategy and Coinbase (COIN) both report Thursday.

The supply calendar is light. Mt. Gox's end-of-October supply scare is off the calendar. The largest unlocks on DefiLlama's calendar landed by Sunday.

Here are six questions for the week ahead.

Does a Fed Hold Still Help Bitcoin?

What happens. The Fed announces its rate decision after a two-day meeting.

When. Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 2 p.m. Eastern. Third-quarter GDP follows Thursday at 8:30 a.m. So does September's spending report, which carries the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Bank of Japan meets Thursday and Friday. Japan's core inflation rose back above 2% ahead of that meeting.

What crypto prices in. A hold. Traders halved the odds of an October Fed hike in one session. Kalshi's hike contract fell to 6 cents from 12 cents on Thursday. Polymarket's no-change contract rose to 93.5 cents. In a Reuters poll, all 100 economists expected a December hike.

The 10-year yield fell below 5% even as Brent hit a five-month high. Bitcoin fell the same day.

What would change it. A statement that leans hard toward December could lift yields again. A hot inflation reading Thursday would do the same. The hike contract can move fast. About 160,000 Kalshi Fed hike contracts were bought in 35 minutes on Oct. 21.

What to watch. Bitcoin's move in the hour after 2 p.m. Wednesday, and whether the 10-year stays under 5%. Last week, falling yields did not lift bitcoin. A rally on a dovish statement would show rates matter again.

Does Big Tech Keep Setting Bitcoin's Direction?

What happens. Three of the largest AI spenders report.

When. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) report after the close Wednesday, Oct. 28. Amazon (AMZN) reports after the close Thursday, Oct. 29.

What crypto prices in. A tight link to tech. Bitcoin erased Sunday's slide overnight, rising with Nasdaq futures. On Wednesday night, it slid as Asian markets opened, with no crypto-specific trigger.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell about 2.6% as Meta (META) and the chipmakers slid. Meta raised its spending floor and Lam Research beat. Chip and AI stocks fell anyway. Lam Research (LRCX) dropped about 11.8% on Thursday.

What would change it. Bitcoin holding steady while Nasdaq futures fall would loosen the link.

What to watch. Bitcoin's overnight moves after each report. Also watch the miners. Bitcoin barely moved after the open. Bitcoin stocks fell as much as 9%. IREN (IREN) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell more than 8% on Thursday.

Do Fund Holders Buy or Sell at Their Breakeven?

What happens. Daily flows into U.S. spot bitcoin funds keep setting the tone.

When. Each trading day, Monday through Friday.

What crypto prices in. Fast money, not steady demand. Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.08 billion in three days. Bitcoin still fell back to its 50-day average. Then bitcoin ETFs swung from $528 million in to $636 million out in a day. That turned October's flows negative, by SoSoValue's count.

What would change it. Glassnode puts holders' average cost near $81,500, right where bitcoin sat early Friday. Two or more straight days of inflows from more than one fund would point to real demand. A break below $81,500 with outflows would show holders selling at cost.

What to watch. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). It drove Monday's $665.2 million inflow and lost $254.1 million on Thursday. Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) lost $217.5 million that day.

Does Strategy Buy Coins or Its Own Paper?

What happens. Strategy (MSTR) holds a special meeting on paying daily dividends on its preferred stock. It then reports third-quarter results.

When. Voting closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, Oct. 27. The meeting is at 10 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 28. If holders approve, daily STRC dividends would begin Nov. 1. Results come after the close Thursday, Oct. 29, with a webinar at 5 p.m.

What crypto prices in. Little steady corporate demand. $193 million for STRC, $22 million for bitcoin. Strategy bought 267 bitcoin in its latest filing. It spent nearly nine times as much buying back its STRC preferred.

Strive's bitcoin treasury is now funding itself at about 17%. Strive (ASST) bought 1,223 bitcoin last week.

What would change it. A filing that shows coin buying outpacing buybacks.

What to watch. The vote result, and what Strategy says on Thursday about funding. Its last two buying updates came in Monday filings. MSCI drew its line on bitcoin-treasury companies, and its list comes Nov. 11.

Who Buys Ether Now?

What happens. Ether faces fund outflows and a delayed upgrade.

When. Daily fund flows. Ethereum's next upgrade was pulled from its final test network. The Oct. 26 test launch is off, and no new date is set.

What crypto prices in. Weak demand. Ether funds lost about $225 million from Monday through Thursday, based on Farside's daily data. Their October outflows passed $1 billion, SoSoValue data show. Ether fell to near $2,400 from about $2,480 a week earlier.

What would change it. A new test-network date for the Glamsterdam upgrade. Steady inflows to BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) would also help.

What to watch. Ether's price against bitcoin, and any update from Ethereum developers on a test date. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said its deposit token is coming to Ethereum, but it has not said when.

What Do Coinbase's Results Say About Stablecoins?

What happens. Coinbase (COIN) reports third-quarter results.

When. After the close Thursday, Oct. 29, with a call at 5 p.m. Eastern.

What crypto prices in. Rules with dates, and doubts about volume. The Comptroller of the Currency finalized its GENIUS Act stablecoin rules last week. They take effect Jan. 18, 2027. Europe's banking regulator takes over USDC's reserve and capital supervision on Nov. 12.

Coinbase fell about 4.5% Thursday with the group. A Circle shareholder sued Trump, World Liberty and Witkoff over UAE-linked crypto deals. World Liberty called the claims without merit. Circle (CRCL) closed down 3.4%.

What would change it. Usage numbers. Three deals in one day moved stablecoins out of pilot and into production this month. One was with Visa (V). None disclosed volumes.

What to watch. How much of Coinbase's revenue comes from stablecoins against trading. Also watch new derivatives routes. Kalshi will lend against bitcoin to fund futures margin. Webull (BULL) plans crypto perpetual futures on Kalshi's exchange from November.