The 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum expired Monday with no renewal. Brent held near $91 as Hormuz talks stalled and Trump threatened Oman. Home Depot kicked off the retail earnings week that will test how much the consumer has slowed.
Tuesday opens with the Iran clock at zero and no agreement to replace it.
Monday's major averages finished lower for a second straight session as oil and long yields rose. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed in the red. Futures are little changed this morning, with Dow futures off roughly 25 points. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi gained 1.9%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.94%.
The next test is the consumer.
Home Depot (HD) beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $4.92 and revenue of $47.86 billion. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, but the company kept full-year guidance unchanged as high rates, inflation and fuel costs continue to hold back larger renovation projects.
Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW) and TJX (TJX) report Wednesday. Walmart (WMT) follows Thursday. The timing matters after July retail sales fell 0.6%, the weakest print in more than a year.
Wednesday also brings the minutes from July's Fed meeting, where three officials voted for a hike.
The Signal
The market is pricing a stalled war and a weaker consumer at the same time. Retail earnings decide which pressure shows up first in company results.
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The memorandum expired Monday. Neither side renewed it.
Trump said he is not interested in extending the June agreement and again hardened his position on Hormuz. WTI moved toward $85 Tuesday after rising 2.6% Monday. Brent settled just below $91.
The Oman dispute adds another risk.
Trump threatened to strike Oman if it interferes with Washington's position as Muscat works with Tehran on a shipping plan for the strait. Washington is not part of those talks.
The wider region is also moving the wrong way. Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander, after Hezbollah attacked Israeli troops. It was the deadliest day there in months.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also promised a new package of "unprecedented" economic pressure on Iran. That package has not yet been announced.
Energy Signal
The agreement is gone, Oman is now part of the dispute, and the next sanctions package has not arrived. Oil is pricing unresolved pressure, not a path toward reopening.
The long end is still refusing to relax.
The 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.7%, close to a 19-month high. The 30-year recently reached its highest level since June 2007.
Markets see much less chance of near-term easing than they did a few weeks ago. September cut odds have fallen to roughly 32%, while investors are increasingly looking toward a possible hike later in the year.
The reason is the split in the data.
July retail sales fell 0.6%, and softer inflation reports argue for patience. But oil remains near $90 Brent, while University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations have climbed above 4%.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes should show how deep that divide already was in July. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three officials dissented in favor of a 25 basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh later called the meeting a "good family fight."
Macro Signal
Weak demand argues for waiting. Oil and inflation expectations argue against easing. Wednesday tells us how close the Fed already was to moving.
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Anthropic is asking investors to price several years of growth today.
The company says second-quarter revenue topped $11.5 billion, up from $787 million a year earlier, while adjusted operating income turned positive. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and JPMorgan (JPM) are reportedly preparing for a possible listing as soon as this fall.
The valuation case leans heavily on the future.
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SpaceX (SPCX) shows the risk in that approach. The stock surged to $225 after its June IPO and now trades near $140, down almost 38% from its peak, after quarterly results replaced the early growth narrative with actual spending and margin data.
That makes retail earnings this week a useful contrast. Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart do not get valued on 2028 demand. They have to show what households are doing now.
Capital Signal
Anthropic's pitch depends on growth years ahead. Retailers report the demand sitting in front of them today. The market is pricing both on very different clocks.
Strategy's next risk may come from indexes, not bitcoin.
MSCI is reviewing a rule that could remove Strategy (MSTR) and similar treasury-heavy companies from its global indexes. A decision is expected by October, with any changes taking effect in November. Removal could force index funds to sell MSTR shares regardless of bitcoin's price.
Strategy holds roughly 840,447 BTC. The stock is down about 36% this year and roughly 75% over 12 months. The company also recently sold 1,690 BTC for about $109 million as it shifts toward preferred-stock and liquidity management.
Bitcoin itself sits near $63,500. ETF flows have weakened again after an early-August rebound, although third-quarter flows remain modestly positive.
Regulatory momentum is also fading. The Senate's next procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for September 15, while Galaxy Research now puts the odds of passage this year near 10%.
The Verdict
Bitcoin access keeps expanding. Its biggest corporate holder now faces index risk, while Congress keeps pushing regulation further out. The structure around bitcoin is changing faster than the price.
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Tuesday begins with three unresolved tests.
The U.S.-Iran memorandum is gone. Oman is now part of the dispute, and Brent remains near $91. Washington's next move could be sanctions, diplomacy or something louder.
Retail earnings put a number on the consumer. Home Depot starts today. Walmart closes the week Thursday.
Then the Fed minutes arrive Wednesday. Three officials wanted a hike before the latest consumer weakness showed up.
Anthropic is asking investors to value 2028 today. Strategy could be removed from indexes because of what sits on its balance sheet now.
The market is carrying future growth and present stress at the same time. This week starts showing which one deserves the higher weight.
