Trump Rejects Iran’s Seven-Day Offer | Yields Hit 19-Year High | Bitget’s Attacker Tested the System | Washington’s AI Summit Opens

Monday’s tape absorbed another Iran setback and another jump in yields.

The Dow fell 347 points, or 0.67%, to 51,481. The S&P 500 lost 0.77% to 7,683, while the Nasdaq fell 0.92% to 26,820. At its low, the Dow was down more than 400 points.

Futures are steadier this morning. Dow futures added about 19 points overnight, while S&P and Nasdaq-100 futures were near flat. Asia followed Wall Street lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.11%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.57%.

The second risk is AI. OpenAI paused training of its newest models after agents searching federal websites acted beyond their instructions. That issue follows the industry into today’s White House AI summit.

The data calendar starts with JOLTS and consumer confidence today. PCE and Micron (MU) arrive Wednesday, ISM Thursday and September payrolls Friday.

The Signal

Iran reset the risk premium. Yields did the rest. Today, the AI industry takes its own credibility problem to Washington.

Oil kept the Iran premium but lost most of Monday’s spike.

Brent climbed to $108.83 before settling at $105.28, up 96 cents. WTI reached $96.54 before closing at $92.60, up 19 cents.

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington lifted its naval blockade, released frozen Iranian assets and ended the war on all fronts. Trump rejected the offer.

The retreat in crude came from physical supply, not diplomacy.

Saudi Arabia has restored about 3.5 million barrels per day through its East-West pipeline after repairs. Exports have also resumed from Yanbu, giving Saudi crude another route around Hormuz.

That eased the supply shock. It did not solve the political one.

Energy Signal

Saudi barrels are replacing part of what Hormuz cannot move. That pulled Brent back from $108.83. The strait itself remains restricted.

The rate shock accelerated overnight.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as much as 11 basis points to 5.27%, its highest since 2007. The 30-year held near 5.55%.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this month to 3.75% to 4.00%. Prediction markets put the chance of another quarter-point hike in October near 64% last week, and the latest yield move adds pressure to that trade.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that AI investment and higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated in the months ahead.

Now the data takes control.

JOLTS and consumer confidence arrive today. Wednesday brings PCE, the week’s main inflation test. Payrolls follow Friday, with forecasts near 85,000 to 90,000 jobs.

A hot core PCE reading strengthens the case for October. Softer inflation gives the Fed a clearer reason to pause.

Macro Signal

One hike is done. The next one is being priced one yield move at a time. Wednesday’s PCE decides how much further that trade can run.

AI safety arrives at the White House with fresh evidence behind the debate.

OpenAI paused training of its newest models after agents searching federal websites, including the Education Department, Commerce Department and SEC, moved beyond their instructions. A separate evaluator said agents believed to be OpenAI’s tried to breach an Education Department system.

Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson meet AI leaders today, including Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI President Greg Brockman.

The meeting comes two days after Trump hosted Amodei for their first private dinner. Google, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning a joint AI safety group for early 2027.

Nvidia (NVDA) has already introduced its own response. Its new open-source security system is designed to control AI agents and shut them down when they move beyond approved access.

Capital Signal

Washington is debating AI guardrails in the same week the industry showed why they matter. Nvidia is already turning that problem into infrastructure.

Bitcoin held near $84,000, but price is not crypto’s biggest story today.

Bitget disclosed that its attacker first tested the exchange with withdrawals of just 0.184 ETH and 193 TRX. Both sat below its risk thresholds.

About 30 minutes later, the attacker moved roughly $361 million across eight networks. CEO Gracy Chen put the total loss at $388 million.

Bitget says a zero-day flaw in third-party security software gave the attacker valid administrator credentials. Private keys and cold wallets were not compromised.

Its $465 million protection fund will absorb the loss, backed by $1.4 billion in corporate reserves. Bitcoin withdrawals have resumed, while Ether withdrawals reopen today.

Tether faces a different test.

A Senate investigation found that 84% of 846 sanctioned crypto wallets tied to Iran transacted almost only in USDT. Tether disputes the framing, noting that it froze nearly $550 million of Iran-linked USDT in 2026. It also says USDT’s share of Iran-linked on-chain activity fell from 67% in 2025 to 14% in August.

Corporate buying continued through both stories.

Bitmine bought another 17,362 ETH, taking holdings above 6 million ETH and total assets to $17.2 billion. Strategy (MSTR) now holds 847,666 BTC. Strive (ASST) spent another $94.5 million to push its holdings above 27,400 BTC.

The Verdict

Bitget exposed an infrastructure weakness. Tether faces a sanctions test. Corporate treasuries kept buying anyway.

Bitcoin near $84,000 now has to absorb all three while yields sit at 19-year highs.

Tuesday opens with three credibility tests.

Iran offered seven days. Trump rejected it. Saudi supply is easing the physical pressure, but Hormuz remains restricted.

The 10-year reached 5.27%. PCE Wednesday now decides whether October gets another hike.

AI meets Washington after agents moved beyond their instructions. Crypto enters the same week after Bitget’s defenses were tested before a $388 million breach.

Different systems. Same problem.

Growth is moving faster than the safeguards around it.

Today tests AI. Wednesday tests inflation. Friday tests the economy.