Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. The Dow jumped 624 points, the dollar fell to its lowest since May, and Bitcoin moved near $81,000. Brent held near $96 as Iran risk stayed live around Hormuz.
Thursday gave markets the rate relief they had been waiting for.
The S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 7,747.71. The Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 26,584.06, while the Dow surged 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to 53,686.11. It was the Dow’s best day since August 4.
The move followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s signal that he would support holding rates steady if inflation data keeps improving. Goldman Sachs (GS), Salesforce (CRM), and Microsoft (MSFT) helped lead the rally, a sign that lower yields, not just AI momentum, drove the move.
The dollar fell to its weakest level since May, while markets cut September hike odds to roughly even from near 70% earlier this week.
The August jobs report came in far stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, more than triple the 53,000 consensus, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Dow futures fell after the release as the stronger labor market pushed attention back toward inflation and the Fed.
The Signal
Waller gave markets a hold case Thursday. Payrolls weakened it Friday. With 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, inflation is now the number that decides September.
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Oil is still holding near six-week highs.
Brent rose 1.07% to $96.24 Thursday, its highest close in six weeks. WTI settled near $91.
The move came as U.S. strikes near Hormuz entered a second week and Iran continued targeting U.S.-aligned positions in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
The flow data is mixed.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 17 million barrels crossed Hormuz Monday, the highest daily volume since the war began. Yet Kpler counted only four vessel transits Tuesday, down from ten.
Those numbers can both be true. Fewer ships can still move more oil if larger tankers carry more volume.
The route is working, but not normally.
Energy Signal
Hormuz is moving more barrels through fewer ships. The market is adapting to the risk, not removing it.
Waller gave the market a clearer hold case.
That pushed September hike odds toward 50%, down from 63% a day earlier and near 70% earlier in the week.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.77% from Wednesday’s 4.818% peak, while the 2-year fell to roughly 4.34%.
ADP had pointed to a much weaker labor market, showing only 38,000 private jobs added in August. The government report told a very different story.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, far above the 53,000 expected and the strongest monthly gain since March. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
That removes one of the strongest arguments for a September hold. The Fed no longer has to choose between weak hiring and high inflation. The labor market looks stable enough to leave inflation as the main risk.
Next week’s inflation data now carries more weight. If price pressures stay firm while oil remains near $96, Waller’s case for waiting becomes much harder to defend.
Macro Signal
Payrolls removed the labor-market excuse for a hold. With 162,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%, inflation now decides whether September ends with another hike.
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Anthropic has started its IPO clock.
It is also discussing a super-voting structure that would protect founder control.
The scale is the bigger story.
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reached more than $65 billion at the end of July, up from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025. The company also posted its first operating profit, near $559 million, in the second quarter.
It is reportedly aiming to match or exceed SpaceX’s (SPCX) record $85.7 billion raise.
If it does, Anthropic would become another test of how much public markets are willing to pay for AI growth.
Capital Signal
SpaceX proved investors would fund trillion-dollar growth stories. Anthropic is now preparing to test an even larger version of that trade.
Bitcoin is close to producing its first golden cross in 277 days.
That move now faces a harder macro test. The 162,000 payroll print came in far above expectations, weakening the rate-hold case that helped push Bitcoin higher Thursday.
If prices hold, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average could cross above its 200-day moving average within days.
The signal has worked before, but not every time. Across past examples since 2011, the average three-month return after a golden cross was positive, but longer-term outcomes were mixed.
This time, another signal is moving with it.
Tether’s USDT share of the total crypto market is moving toward its own death cross, which can point to capital leaving stablecoins and moving back into risk assets.
Policy is moving too.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins confirmed the CLARITY Act cloture vote for September 15. Kraken parent Payward is also joining SoFi’s settlement network to support SoFiUSD.
The Verdict
Bitcoin’s technical and flow signals are improving, but payrolls just removed part of Thursday’s dovish tailwind. The next move now depends more heavily on inflation.
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Friday begins with markets already leaning dovish.
Waller cut the hike scare. Yields fell. The dollar weakened. Stocks rallied. Bitcoin moved back toward $81,000.
But all of that happened before the jobs report.
Oil is still near $96. Hormuz is still militarized. The Fed still has twelve days before its September decision.
Anthropic is moving ahead with its IPO plans anyway, while Bitcoin is trying to confirm a technical breakout.
The next move now depends on one number.
If payrolls weaken again, Waller’s hold case gets stronger.
If jobs surprise higher, the hawks get the argument back.
