Warsh Wouldn't Commit, and a Hike Bet Halved | The Strait Carried a Third Less Oil | Banks Sweetened an AI Loan | MSCI Set Its Date

Brokerage clients borrowed more, and Netflix shook up its content team.

S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1% at 7:15 a.m. Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly lower. Seoul's Kospi rose 2.05% Friday after Thursday's 7.6% drop.

Interactive Brokers added accounts 35% and raised its dividend 71%. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) said customer margin loans rose 36% from a year earlier to $105.2 billion.

Adjusted earnings were 67 cents a share. Clients' stock trading volume fell 24%.

Netflix replaced its content chief and cut about 6% of staff. Former Disney executive Peter Rice replaces Bela Bajaria on Oct. 26, Netflix said Thursday.

It confirmed this week that it is cutting about 1,000 jobs. Netflix (NFLX) reports on Tuesday. Its shares were down nearly 3% at 7:25 a.m.

More Margin, Fewer Shares

Interactive Brokers' clients borrowed more against their accounts and traded fewer shares. Netflix named a new content chief less than a week before it reports.

Supply cushions thinned, and a bet on Washington lifting its blockade stayed near its lows.

The Strait carried a third less oil last week and allies pledged less diesel. Hormuz flows averaged 11.62 million barrels a day in the week to Oct. 13, Kpler data show. Kpler's baseline is 17.15 million.

The International Energy Agency agreed Thursday to speed up its remaining stock release. It promised "over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible."

A person familiar with the talks told Reuters that 50 million barrels of diesel had been considered. Brent was little changed early Friday, near $106.

Twelve ship attacks in a week marked a record near Hormuz. Britain's maritime agency logged them from Oct. 5 to 11. That was the most in any week since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, the BBC said.

Polymarket's contract on an official U.S. end to the blockade by Oct. 31 fell to 4.5 cents overnight. It was 6.5 cents at 4 p.m. Thursday and back at 5.5 cents at 7:25 a.m., about 1-in-18.

The Treasury sanctioned an Iraqi bank it says gives Iran dollar access.

Thinner Flows, Long Odds

Gulf transits fell well short of Kpler's baseline, and the diesel release came in smaller than discussed. Brent barely moved, and the blockade contract stayed near its lows.

Bonds had rallied before the chair spoke, and a hike bet sank overnight.

Hot data, falling yields and a Fed chair who won't say. Warsh declined to preview the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said in Bangkok.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 5.10%, down 9 basis points. Warsh's talk was his last scheduled appearance before the Fed's quiet period starts Saturday.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned Thursday of an "inflationary mindset." If one sets in, she said, "we might need to move even more."

After Warsh declined to commit, Kalshi's October contract halved by dawn. Warsh spoke around 11:30 p.m. Eastern. The contract on a quarter-point hike this month traded between 27 and 30 cents through the evening.

It traded at 14 cents at 4:42 a.m. and 13 cents at 7:18 a.m. Asian markets were also opening, and the trades carry no stated reason.

A Quiet Chair, a Cheaper Bet

Warsh passed up his last chance to signal before the blackout. Long yields had already fallen. Kalshi's October price ended the night at half its evening level.

One AI borrower paid up to borrow, while direct lenders struggled to lend.

Banks had to sweeten Volta's $5 billion AI loan to sell it. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs sold it Thursday at 6.5 percentage points over the benchmark rate, Bloomberg News reported.

The price was 95 cents on the dollar, against initial talk of 97 to 98. The yield topped the 11% the banks had floated, and investors got added protections, per the report.

The banks underwrote only a $1.3 billion term loan, not the $3.7 billion loan for Nvidia chips. The $1.3 billion backs Volta's lease of a data-center campus in Norway from Bitdeer, a bitcoin miner.

Direct lenders raised 35% more money this year and lent 28% less last quarter. Their funds raised $129.15 billion in nine months, Preqin data show.

Estimated third-quarter direct lending fell to $49.77 billion, per PitchBook LCD. Borrowers moved $16.39 billion of direct loans into bank loans in the quarter. Only $2.60 billion went the other way.

Discounts and Dry Powder

Volta's lenders got a deeper discount and new protections. Direct lenders raised 35% more money, and borrowers moved back to bank loans.

An index provider set a date for bitcoin-treasury stocks, and one of them raised costly money.

Bitcoin traded near $82,800 at 7:25 a.m., up about 2% in 24 hours. Ether was near $2,480, up about 5%.

MSCI drew its line on bitcoin-treasury companies. After Thursday's close, MSCI said "non-operating companies" will be ineligible for its global indexes.

The change takes effect at the Nov. 30 close, and the final list comes Nov. 11. Current members leave only if they fail the test in each of their last two annual filings.

MSCI's earlier simulation flagged Strategy and Metaplanet. Strategy (MSTR) closed up 5.6% Thursday, before the news. It was down about 3% at 7:25 a.m.

Strive is paying about 16.7% to raise money for bitcoin. Strive (ASST) priced 7 million shares of 15% perpetual preferred at $90, below the $100 stated value.

The sale will raise about $630 million before fees, and bitcoin is among the planned uses.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in a net $5.1 million Thursday, Farside data show. Ether funds had $60.3 million of outflows.

A Date and a Coupon

MSCI put a date on an open question. Strive's new preferred yields more than its 15% coupon. Bitcoin fund flows were flat.

Friday morning priced decisions still to come: the Fed's October vote, Washington's blockade and MSCI's list.

Warsh would not commit, and Kalshi's October hike price halved overnight. Washington gave no sign of ending its blockade, and Gulf flows ran a third below Kpler's baseline.

Volta paid up for AI chip money. MSCI set Nov. 11 for its list.