Brent held near $87 while Hormuz remained shut. Anthropic investors are targeting a $2 trillion October IPO, more than double its May valuation. The SEC votes today on Regulation Crypto, its first formal crypto rulemaking.
Cooling inflation is doing the work oil could not.
July PPI was flat Thursday, below the 0.2% gain expected. Core PPI rose just 0.2%, also below forecast. That followed Wednesday's CPI at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core. The 10-year yield fell to 4.66% from 4.75% two sessions earlier. September Fed-hike odds dropped to roughly 40%.
Stocks took the relief.
The S&P 500 gained 0.65% to a record 7,798.99. The Nasdaq rose 0.81% to 26,803.03, helped by Meta (META), Micron (MU) and Netflix (NFLX). The Dow added 0.13% to 53,839.99.
Asia carried the rally into Friday.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index headed for a fourth straight weekly gain. South Korea's Kospi rose more than 2.5% early, while Samsung and SK Hynix are each up more than 14% this week. Japan's Nikkei gained about 0.75%.
Earnings provide the other support. With more than 90% of the S&P 500 reported, second-quarter earnings growth is tracking near 50% year over year.
Retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment land today. The SEC's crypto vote follows at 10 a.m. ET.
The Signal
Two soft inflation reports changed the rate trade. Retail sales now tests whether slower prices came with a weaker consumer.
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The data cooled. The Fed's split did not disappear.
The FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan dissented for a hike. It was the first three-way dissent in the same direction since 2016.
Chair Kevin Warsh has also removed forward guidance from Fed statements. That puts more weight on each release.
This week's numbers weakened the hawkish case. CPI eased to 3.4%. Core fell to 2.5%. PPI was flat. September hike odds are now near 40%, down from about 50% before Thursday's wholesale inflation report.
Retail sales are the next test.
A weak consumer number adds to the case for waiting after July payrolls fell 23,000. A strong print gives the hawks another reason to argue that demand can handle tighter policy.
The next Fed decision comes September 16. One day earlier, the Senate is due to take its first procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.
Macro Signal
Inflation is cooling, but the Fed is still split. September now puts rates and crypto regulation on the calendar one day apart.
Oil has stopped screaming. Hormuz has not reopened.
Brent held near $87.18 Friday after snapping a multi-day rally Thursday. The IEA cut its demand outlook, while OPEC lowered its 2026 demand-growth forecast again.
Iran says Hormuz remains blocked until its conditions are met. The latest mediated talks have produced no breakthrough.
The physical disruption is severe.
MarineTraffic has recorded as few as eight daily vessel crossings this month, compared with roughly 130 before the war. The U.S. has also lost close to a quarter of its MQ-9 Reaper fleet during five months of fighting, while Washington continues rotating carriers through the region.
That explains the strange calm in crude.
Traders are no longer pricing a quick reopening as the base case. A closed strait has become part of the baseline.
Energy Signal
Oil is quiet because the market has adapted to disruption, not because the disruption ended. The price stabilized before the waterway did.
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The AI IPO race may have found its next record.
Anthropic investors are targeting a valuation near $2 trillion for an IPO as early as October. That is more than double the company's reported $965 billion May valuation.
The argument rests on growth.
Annualized revenue has climbed toward $47 billion, with investors projecting $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end. At the upper end, even a valuation near 20 times sales would support a number around $2 trillion.
That would put Anthropic beside SpaceX (SPCX) in a new class of mega-listings. SpaceX closed near $141 Thursday after a volatile first two months as a public company. Its post-IPO range has stretched from $104.83 to $225.64, despite second-quarter revenue beating expectations at $7.8 billion.
The infrastructure behind those valuations keeps expanding.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) disclosed a 20-year, 191-megawatt Rockdale lease worth up to $9.1 billion, reportedly tied to Anthropic. Riot now has 241 megawatts of contracted AI capacity at the site. Intel (INTC), meanwhile, expanded its stock offering from $15 billion to $20 billion to fund AI capacity.
Capital Signal
AI demand is outrunning the balance sheets built to fund it. Anthropic wants public capital. Intel wants fresh equity. Riot is turning power into rent.
Washington's two crypto tracks are moving at different speeds.
The SEC votes at 10 a.m. ET on Regulation Crypto, the first formal crypto rulemaking under Chair Paul Atkins. The proposal is expected to create a tailored capital-raising path for crypto projects. Today's vote would open the rule for public comment, not make it final.
Congress is further behind. The CLARITY Act missed its pre-recess deadline. Its first Senate procedural vote is now expected September 15 and needs 60 votes to advance.
Bitcoin is waiting too. BTC trades near $63,500 and remains below the $65,000 level needed to break its recent range. Spot bitcoin ETFs drew $853.5 million in the week through August 7, the strongest since April. BlackRock's (BLK) IBIT took $693 million. Yet the category remains roughly $4.5 billion negative for the year.
Strategy (MSTR) is also changing its capital mix. It sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million last week and used about $109 million to repurchase STRC preferred stock. Another $653 million of MSTR share sales lifted its cash reserve to $4.65 billion. Strategy still owns 840,447 BTC after selling 6,948 coins this year.
The Verdict
The SEC is moving while Congress waits. Strategy is managing liquidity while bitcoin waits. The rules and balance sheets are changing faster than the price.
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Friday closes a week that changed the rate debate without resolving the bigger risks.
CPI printed 3.4%. PPI was flat. The S&P closed at a record, the 10-year fell to 4.66%, and September hike odds dropped near 40%.
Hormuz remains blocked. Brent has simply learned to live near $87 with it.
Capital is doing the opposite of waiting. Anthropic is discussing a $2 trillion IPO. Intel is raising $20 billion. Riot is turning bitcoin infrastructure into AI capacity.
Crypto gets its own test today. The SEC votes at 10. Congress gets its turn September 15. The Fed follows one day later.
For now, softer inflation bought every risk asset more time. The next question is whether the consumer gives some of it back.
