Yields Hit 24-Year Highs | Micron’s Beat Meets Higher Costs | Bitcoin Holds Near $86K | Payrolls Decide the Fed’s Next Move

Thursday’s close argued with itself.

The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,666.45. The Nasdaq added 0.04% to 26,871.60, while the Dow gained 20.51 points to 50,926.56 after yields pulled back from their highs.

Futures point higher Friday. S&P 500 futures gained 0.26%, Dow futures added about 125 points and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.42%. All three major indexes remain on track for weekly losses.

The reason for caution arrives at 8:30 a.m.

September payrolls are expected near 90,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. Wednesday’s ADP report raised the bar after private employers added 90,000 jobs, more than double August’s revised 36,000.

The Signal

Yields are below their highs, not out of the trade. Payrolls decide whether Thursday’s rebound was a turn or just relief.

Diplomacy moved forward. Oil still wants proof.

Iran confirmed it received Washington’s formal response to its seven-day Hormuz proposal through Qatari mediators. President Masoud Pezeshkian was briefed, but Tehran has not disclosed the U.S. terms.

Iran’s offer calls for Washington to lift its naval blockade and release frozen assets in exchange for reopening Hormuz and starting wider talks. Trump had already rejected the original plan.

Brent eased to $96.76 Thursday, down 1.3%, as traders waited for a clearer diplomatic signal.

The pressure on Tehran is rising. Iran’s currency hit another record low this week, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the country could have “nothing left to trade” within two weeks.

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks also remain below 300 million barrels, their lowest since January 1983.

Energy Signal

Formal proposals are moving between Washington and Tehran again. Until they change physical flows through Hormuz, oil has little reason to price a deal.

The Fed trade now rests on labor.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.344% this week, its highest since 2002. The 30-year crossed 5.6%.

Then softer inflation changed the near-term rate trade.

August core PCE rose just 0.2%, pushing October hike odds from around 50% into the mid-30s. New York Fed President John Williams also said the Fed does not need to rush after September’s hike took rates to 3.75% to 4.00%.

December tells a different story.

Markets still put roughly 74% to 83% odds on at least one more hike before year-end. That means traders are pricing a possible October pause, not the end of tightening.

Friday’s payroll report can change that quickly. ADP’s 90,000 gain showed the labor market still has strength.

Macro Signal

PCE built the October pause case. ADP weakened it. Payrolls now decides which signal the Fed carries toward October 28.

AI spending is spreading into chips, cloud capacity, safety and power.

Micron (MU) closed 3% higher after revenue nearly quadrupled from a year ago. Shares are now up about 270% this year. Management still sees tight AI-memory demand, though higher worker pay is expected to pressure margins.

Alphabet (GOOGL) gained about 2% premarket after launching Gemini 4 Argon. Google says the model improves coding and cybersecurity performance while competing at a lower price.

Oracle (ORCL) also gained after reports that Tencent signed a $7 billion, five-year deal for roughly 100,000 advanced AI chips through Oracle’s Southeast Asian data centers.

Accenture (ACN) jumped 16% after earnings and a new AI safety partnership with Anthropic. Each company plans to commit at least $1 billion over five years to the project.

Constellation Energy (CEG) added almost 4% after signing a 20-year nuclear power agreement with Amazon (AMZN).

Capital Signal

AI capex is no longer one chip trade. It is paying for memory, cloud capacity, safety teams, worker costs and electricity at the same time.

Bitcoin is holding near $86,000 as Washington opens another front in crypto policy.

Senator Steve Daines introduced the 56-page ADAPT Act. The bill would exempt some stablecoin purchases from transaction-by-transaction capital gains, exclude network fees below $10 from gain calculations and extend wash-sale rules to digital assets.

It joins the House Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, which has already cleared committee.

Institutional flows also recovered.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a nine-day, $3.1 billion inflow streak Wednesday with $148.7 million of outflows. Thursday reversed part of that move with about $103 million of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT.

The two-day swing shows demand remains strong but selective.

Robinhood (HOOD) is facing its own regulatory test. Its crypto chief said the company is still reviewing the SEC’s new tokenized-stock exemption, which limits eligible assets and trading volume. That comes as Robinhood moves ahead with U.S. crypto perpetual futures.

Block (XYZ) is pushing in the other direction. The company launched a campaign promoting Bitcoin as everyday spending money.

The Verdict

Bitcoin is holding near $86,000 while the infrastructure around it keeps changing.

Congress is rewriting tax treatment. The SEC is defining tokenized markets. ETF money returned one day after leaving.

Crypto is not waiting for one rulebook before building the next market.

Friday brings the week back to one number.

PCE gave the Fed room to pause. ADP showed the labor market may still be strong enough to keep another hike alive.

The 10-year has already touched 5.344%. December hike odds remain as high as 83%.

Iran and Washington are exchanging proposals, but Hormuz still needs a physical change before diplomacy becomes an oil story.

AI spending keeps spreading across memory, cloud infrastructure, safety and power. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is holding near $86,000 as ETF demand returns and Washington works through tax and market rules.

Payrolls now get the final word.

A number near 90,000 keeps October’s pause case alive.

A major upside surprise puts the hike debate straight back on the table.